Is the Pokémon card market a bubble?
The honest answer is that the record does not say. What it does say, as of 3 Nov 2026: the vintage market index is 5,021.7, 3.3× its Feb 2021 peak after falling 37.9% to Apr 2024 and rising +423.6% since. The largest monthly move in the last twelve was +18.8% and the smallest -13.1%. 38 of 158 cards that sold this month are up and 102 down; 41 are at all-time highs. 32% of the PSA 10 value added since March sits in eight cards. A PSA 10 clears 9.9× a PSA 9. Those are the facts a bubble argument is made of, on either side; the page gives you the numbers and their receipts, not the verdict. Not investment advice: this is a record of what sold, dated, not a view on what will.
The last thirteen months of the index
| Month | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2026 | 5,021.7 | -13.1% |
| Oct 2026 | 5,775.4 | +18.5% |
| Sep 2026 | 4,874.3 | +18.8% |
| Aug 2026 | 4,102.9 | +8.3% |
| Jul 2026 | 3,790.2 | +7.3% |
| Jun 2026 | 3,532.8 | +8.0% |
| May 2026 | 3,272.1 | +9.4% |
| Apr 2026 | 2,990.5 | +9.8% |
| Mar 2026 | 2,723.2 | +13.3% |
| Feb 2026 | 2,402.5 | +10.9% |
| Jan 2026 | 2,166.8 | +8.3% |
| Dec 2025 | 2,000.0 | +5.3% |
| Nov 2025 | 1,900.1 | +5.3% |
What a bubble looks like in this data, and what it does not
Three things the record can show: how far the level sits above its last peak and its last trough; whether the rise is broad (hundreds of cards printing higher sales) or narrow (a few cards carrying the value); and whether the gem premium — the price of the grade over the card — is widening. Three things it cannot: who is buying, on what money, and what they do next. Every figure above is a documented sale with a receipt; the Pro desk shows the same series card by card since 2021.
How these numbers are marked
Every price is a documented PSA sale — an eBay item with its cert number, a Card Ladder entry, or an auction-house lot with its page — never an asking price or an estimate. A card's PSA 10 mark is its last documented sale, averaged with any sales of the week before it (rule R1). A print that sits more than three times away from the card's own recent trading, or across a neighbouring grade's level, is held until a second sale agrees with it. Each index is a fixed-weight basket of those marks, rebased to 1,000. The receipt behind every mark is on its card page. The monthly closes since Feb 2021 are on the .AGG page.
Related questions
The desk behind the page.
Every card above with its order book PSA 10 → PSA 1, the receipt behind each mark, the live listings checked against it, and the whole record since 2021. Free — a member account takes one email.
Questions
Is the Pokémon card market in a bubble?
The record as of 3 Nov 2026: the vintage index is 3.3× its Feb 2021 peak, after a 37.9% drawdown to Apr 2024; 38 of 158 cards that sold this month are up. Whether that is a bubble is a judgement the page does not make.
How far did vintage Pokémon fall after its last peak?
The vintage market index fell 37.9% from its Feb 2021 peak to its Apr 2024 low on documented sales.
Is the rise broad or a few cards?
38 of the 158 cards with a documented sale this month are up on the month, 41 at all-time highs; 32% of the PSA 10 value added since March sits in eight cards.
Cite this pageVintage Chase Tracker, “Is the Pokémon Card Market a Bubble? The Vintage Record as of November 2026”, vintagechasetracker.com/market/is-the-pokemon-card-market-a-bubble/, data as of 3 Nov 2026. Free to quote with a link; documented PSA sales, not advice.